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Stepping into 2020

In 2019, generations of Hong Kong experienced an unprecedented severe test, from diversified opinions to polarised views, from embracing differences to mutual hostility and from obedience to violent destruction. Over the past two hundred days or so, Hong Kong has suddenly become such an unfamiliar and appalling place. With violence, rioters "settled privately" those who hampered them from breaking the law or held different opinions from them, maliciously caused disturbance to shops, malls, banks branches and the MTR, and destroyed both private and public properties.

These scenes remained vivid in our mind and left many people in Hong Kong worried and despaired. They went out less and spent less, having safety concerns of their own as well as their relatives and friends. In October, Hong Kong's retail sales volume plummeted by 26%, the most significant monthly drop in history, and it was not much better for November. These scenes also scared off travelers for business or sightseeing. The number of arrivals dropped by about 50% even at the usual peak during Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Hong Kong's economy has entered into a recession, directly affecting a large number of grassroots workers, with shrunk income and risk of unemployment. In particular, the unemployment rate in the catering service industry shot over 6%, the highest in the past eight years. Among the 2.9% year-on-year negative economic growth in Hong Kong in the third quarter, 2% was caused by the social unrest and violent acts. Whilst the statistics for the fourth quarter will only be released early next year, the negative growth is expected to continue, judging from the trend in recent months. This also leads to the first deficit in government accounts since 15 years ago, implying that the government's flexibility in mobilising financial resources will be reduced under the economic downturn.

The turmoil of the past six months has severely hit the slowing economy of Hong Kong. And the larger impact is on people's hearts. The rioters threatened the citizens' safety and freedom of expression with the primitive violence of "my way or the highway", trampled on the freedom and rights of others to create a bluff, creating "black terror", and damaged the rule of law. The core spirit of the law as a social contract for dispute settlement is to prohibit the "Law of the Jungle" by bullying, and bringing a civilized and rational society. In fact, regardless of the motive declared, the very basic principle is that we should not resort to violence, which is illegal.

With two days left, the Year of 2019 will become history. Today's Hong Kong can no longer afford further violence and hatred. We should not turn a blind eye to the rampant or even brutal acts of rioters due to dissatisfaction or unhappiness, as such connivance is the culprit which ruins Hong Kong. Hong Kong may not be as good as we wish, but it is by no means as bad as some people described. The turmoil that has plagued Hong Kong for seven months still continues. Many people are asking, when can we return to peace? What hopes can we have for 2020?

Hong Kong currently faces several pressing issues: violent coercion (including assault, damage, malicious nuisance and doxxing), social disputes and economic recession. The three issues are intertwined, but should be addressed individually.

First of all, we must stop any acts of coercion and destruction. If goals could be achieved through destruction, who would be willing to build? Perhaps some people hope that the society will be chaotic enough to accumulate bargaining chips to promote social movements. However, for general citizens, only social stability will provide space for living and development.

As for social disputes, we should seek a way out through dialogue, mutual understanding, and actively moving forward. Opposition and curse are no more than venting of emotions, they will only push Hong Kong towards the heart of struggle, and will only give rise to hatred and despair.

Facing the economic recession caused by internal and external difficulties, we have to work together with one mind. In terms of the external environment, trade protectionism, unilateralism, and the geopolitical situation will continue to mediate the situation next year. On the local front, whether consumption and tourism can soon be improved would hinge on the pace of restoring stability of Hong Kong's social scene. If the business environment continues to be difficult and the unemployment rate rises, it will further hit the weak consumption market and increase the living pressure of workers. In order to alleviate the "pain" caused by the economic downturn to small and medium enterprises and citizens, the Budget to be released in February will focus on "supporting enterprises, safeguarding jobs, stimulating the economy and smoothening livelihoods".

The long-standing deep-rooted economic and social conflicts, such as issues of land and housing, poverty, etc., involve resource allocation and social justice. It is both a livelihood issue and a political issue, which must be dealt with in a specific, rational and prudent manner.

Fortunately, the core competitiveness of Hong Kong's financial markets has been maintained. The banking system, the securities market, the Linked Exchange Rate System, and the free flow of funds in and out of Hong Kong have all operated in sound and orderly manner. The Hang Seng Index is currently at about 28 000 points, about 3 000 points higher than early 2019. Since the beginning of this year, the IPO of Hong Kong's securities market has exceeded $280 billion, which has once again come first on the IPO league table, the seventh time in the past eleven years. This reflects the strong fund-raising capability of our financial market, which continues to provide support to the future economic development of Hong Kong.

As we walk through 2019, no matter with fear, anxiety, anger or confusion, we can choose to embrace the future with hope for the 2020. Over the past century or so, Hong Kong has sailed through storms and waves, every time we have turned crisis into opportunities and become more competitive and successful. I am convinced that, as long as everyone embraces challenges proactively, summarises experiences and makes concerted effort, we can certainly overcome the current difficulties, and Hong Kong can reach another peak again.

29 December 2019