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Get vaccinated to protect yourself and our home

I have received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine last month. To protect ourselves and our families and to achieve a full and steady economic recovery, we hope that everyone could support the vaccination programme.

In the blink of an eye, it is now one third through year 2021. The global economy has seen a more pronounced upturn on the back of the large-scale fiscal and monetary policy measures in many major economies. The economic rebound is particularly notable in the Mainland where the epidemic has remained under control, and also in the US where COVID-19 vaccines are being actively administered.

The Mainland economic growth accelerated to 18.3% in the first quarter of this year, marking four consecutive quarters of positive growth. Even if we compare the first quarter’s performance with that of 2019 so as to eliminate the low base effect seen in the same period last year, there was still a 10.3% growth, showcasing a steady recovery of the Mainland economy. As for the US, the market generally expects that figures for the first quarter of this year to be released this week will show continued improvement of the economy, after resuming growth in the preceding two quarters. It can be said that the outlook for the world’s two largest economies is optimistic. Coupled with other economies’ proactive policy support in general, the International Monetary Fund earlier this month raised its global economic growth forecast for this year to 6%.

How about Hong Kong’s situation? Led by the improved external environment, Hong Kong’s exports had resumed growth for four consecutive months, with the growth in merchandise exports reaching 37.5% in the first two months of 2021 combined. As export performance of the Mainland and other Asian economies continued to be impressive, it is expected that figures on Hong Kong’s exports for March to be released on 27 April would indicate sustained improvement.

Meanwhile, retail sales were largely affected by the epidemic and social distancing measures. When the epidemic was contained, marked improvement to the sentiment for both the retail and catering sectors could be seen. Business sentiment has also recovered of late as the epidemic eased. Judging from the current situation, Hong Kong’s GDP will likely show a more notable improvement in the first quarter against a low base of comparison after recording negative growth for six consecutive quarters.

Yet, the “sensory temperature” in real life could be another situation. Taking the latest unemployment figures as an example, the unemployment rate in the first quarter (January to March) was 6.8%, down by 0.4 percentage point from a 17-year high announced last month. However, there were still around 260 000 unemployed persons. Although the underemployment rate edged down to 3.8%, 148 000 persons were still underemployed. For these 400 000 wage earners, their pain was still intense.

Moreover, the unemployment rate of the consumption- and tourism-related sectors (viz. retail, accommodation and food services sectors) combined remained high at 10.7%, much higher than the overall figures. For the food and beverage service activities sector in particular, even though the unemployment rate fell back by 0.8 percentage point, it remained elevated at 13.3%, reflecting that the epidemic and social distancing measures took a heavy toll on business operations and the labour market. Hence, we need to bring the local epidemic under full control as soon as possible so as to enable business and tourist travels with the Mainland and the rest of the world to resume. Otherwise, it would be difficult for the labour market to improve in a broad-based manner. Furthermore, as fresh graduates are going to enter the job market soon, the room for the labour market to improve further in the near term will be limited.

How can we on one hand ensure and safeguard public health, while on the other hand try to resume people’s normal daily lives, including work, study and travel? Many places around the world have been pushing hard to encourage their people to receive vaccinations, so as to curb the spread of the virus and reduce the risk of serious illness for those who get infected. In the US and the UK, over 40% of their populations have received at least one dose of the vaccine; and the ratio is even over 60% in Israel. However in Hong Kong, the ratio is just over 10%.

Looking back the past 10 months or so, the evolution of the epidemic has led to adjustments in social distancing measures from time to time, which has greatly disrupted many business operations and the lives of the general public. Many studies have pointed out that vaccination has become a crucial part of the anti-epidemic battle. Only when a large proportion of the public are vaccinated can the impact of the virus be better contained and social distancing restrictions be further relaxed. When people’s lives could return to normal and smooth and convenient cross-boundary travel is enabled again, the economy would be able to undergo a swift recovery in the shortest possible time. Furthermore, as vaccination in Europe and the US is progressing well, resumption of international travel is being actively deployed. If Hong Kong lags behind in vaccination, we would be relatively constrained and economic recovery would also be hindered when travel largely resumes in overseas markets.

In terms of vaccine supply, Hong Kong is more fortunate than many other places in the world. Apart from sufficient quantity, we are also able to offer two different types of vaccines for the public to choose. Many vaccination centres have been set up in different locations for the convenience of the public. Now with the vaccination programme extended to cover all persons aged 16 or above, there is indeed room for us to expedite the vaccination in Hong Kong. To protect ourselves and our families, to win the war against the epidemic, to restore our lives back to normal, to achieve a full and steady economic recovery, and to facilitate leisure and business travels to the Mainland and overseas, we hope that everyone could support the vaccination programme, and encourage your family members and friends to participate.

April 25, 2021